NBA best bets: Game 5 expert picks, player props and predictions for 5/1

Heat vs. Celtics

Wednesday, May 1, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Heat +800 (Caesars)

By Maltman

Boston just went to Miami and won by 20 and 14 points. Neither game was particularly close, as Miami's win in Game 2 looked more and more flukey.

Here's the thing about the Celtics and the NBA: Sometimes when something flukey happens, it keeps happening, and then maybe it's no longer a fluke but just part of a team's DNA.

Since this Celtics team got really good (2023 season), the Celtics are 12-13 at home in the playoffs. Given they've been favorites in most of those games, it's not a particularly great record.

But that even gives this Celtics team perhaps too much credit.

During that same stretch at home, they're 4-2 when they're behind in the series, 6-7 when they're tied and 2-4 when they're ahead. Those two wins both came when they were up 1-0 in a series — against Brooklyn in 2022 and Atlanta in 2022 — in the first round.

Last year in the first round, they came home for Game 5 against Atlanta in a series they were up 3-1. I had bet Boston that series on the spread at -2.5, and the Celtics were 13.5-point favorites. Great teams close out the series, but instead, the C's lost by two.

I have doubted the Celtics ever since, and especially now that they're ahead.

I'm betting .25u on the Heat to win at +800 on Caesars (I would bet it down to +500).

I like the spread as well, but I would rather take the higher upside play here.

Pick: Heat +800

Al Horford Over 0.5 Steals (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Al Horford is going to be relied on heavily with Kristaps Porzingis out.

Last game, Horford got up to 34 minutes, eight more than his previous series-high of 26 from Game 1. Porzingis left Game 4 in the second quarter due to a calf injury and Horford replaced him in the starting lineup in the second half.

Horford will likely see a lot of Bam Adebayo, and while Adebayo has had his success against Horford — including in this series — Horford has simply deflected the ball out of his hands on numerous occasions.

The odds aren't awesome, but I played it even at -150. Horford has over 0.5 steals in two of four, and I'd be stunned if he doesn't get one in Game 5 if he's playing starter minutes.

I think Adebayo plays well, but I'll take Horford to force at least one turnover.

Pick: Al Horford Over 0.5 Steals

Nikola Jovic Over 1.5 3s (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Last game was a dud. And frankly, it was inexcusable that Nikola Jovic played just 16 minutes.

But now with Jaime Jaquez Jr. out, what choice do the Heat have?

So, we're back at it.

Jovic has cleared this three times — all before Game 4, and even in that matchup, he made one. I think his usage sees an uptick and that he's utilized more, especially with Porzingis on the sidelines — as well as the aforementioned Jaquez.

Pick: Nikola Jovic Over 1.5 3s

Delon Wright Over 0.5 3s (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Again, the Heat are going to be searching.

Delon Wright played 29 minutes and didn't attempt a 3 in Game 4 — that's an outlier.

He's not a shooter, but he made one or more 3s in five games to end the regular season and two of his first three games in this series. He had the notable 5-for-5 in Game 2, but he missed Game 3 due to the birth of his new daughter.

I think a desperate Heat team will re-commit to shooting 3s, and Wright will see minutes with Jaquez out (honestly, he's a candidate to start the game as a result).

I don't dislike his points at 5.5, either, if so.

Pick: Delon Wright Over 0.5 3s

Mavericks vs. Clippers

Wednesday, May 1, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Under 209.5 (BetRivers)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Mavericks were surprisingly one of the faster-paced teams in the league during the regular season, but that hasn't been the case in the playoffs.

This series is the third-slowest of the eight, and both defenses have shown up in the first round. The Mavericks rank eighth in Defensive Rating, per Cleaning the Glass, while the Clippers are 11th, despite having Kawhi Leonard in only two games.

Beyond the general conditions for an under, I’ll go back to a playoff trend I came across this season. In games where the home team is the underdog, the under is 205-166-3 since 2005 for seven percent ROI, including 7-1 this season if we include the Play-In Tournament.

My projections put this in the low-200s, and I like it down to 206 with reduced risk past 207.5.

Pick: Under 209.5

Norman Powell Over 10.5 Points (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Clippers and Mavericks are in a tightly-contested series and are tied 2-2 headed into Game 5.

Leonard (knee) has already been ruled out and the primary beneficiary has been Norman Powell, despite Amir Coffey joining the starting lineup.

Powell has averaged 13.9 points in 26.2 minutes per game on the season. It’s a bit surprising that he's actually averaged one point fewer in 14 games without Kawhi than with him this season (12.9 vs. 13.9); however, the volume has increased in the games without him.

Besides the anticipated uptick in volume, Powell has played well the last two games, with 21 and 11 points. He's a capable scorer, and he's played nearly 30 minutes in each game this series.

When Powell has played 25+ minutes this season, he's averaged 15.5 points and exceeded this 10.5 line in 84% of games.

Even if this bumps to 11.5, he’s exceeded that in 76% of games.

I expect Powell to take advantage of the increased workload and exceed 10.5 points today. I don’t mind a sprinkle of 15+ (+240 FanDuel).

Pick: Norman Powell Over 10.5 Points