Champions League: Dortmund vs. PSG odds, predictions, picks for Wed. 5/1

Dortmund vs. PSG Odds

Wednesday, May 1, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund had an established baseline in Germany for a significant period where they had rising superstars Erling Haaland, Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham and performed as the consistently second-best team in the Bundesliga. If you compare the talent on those teams of the past — which never made it past the CL quarterfinals — it's wild to see that this version of Dortmund is the one reaching the semifinal. Some of it is the good fortune of the draw — Dortmund were the eighth power rated team by the market entering the quarterfinal and then drew seventh-best Atlético Madrid. A lot of it is good finishing variance. First, here is Dortmund's xG difference per 90 minutes in their own domestic league in the last five seasons.

xG difference per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga

2019-20: +0.59
2020-21: +0.72
2021-22: +0.52
2022-23: +0.82
2023-24: +0.31

This version of Dortmund is the worst both defensively and in attack. Dortmund have never been known for their defensive solidity and consistency, but it's stunning to see them all the way down at ninth in expected goals allowed. The attack is notorious for its explosiveness and goal scoring, yet Dortmund are fifth in goals and fifth in expected goals.

Dortmund have played 10 matches in the Champions League, two each against Newcastle, Milan, PSG, PSV Eindhoven and Atlético Madrid. It is by far the toughest schedule anyone has played in Europe this year, but Dortmund have also lost the expected goals in eight of their 10 matches. Newcastle home and away the only two matches where they statistically outplayed their opponent over the full 90 minutes.

One major reason Dortmund have made it this far is goalkeeping. Gregor Kobel has started nine of the 10 matches and he's saved 5.6 goals over expected. It's almost a full goal more than every other keeper in the competition — Nick Pope was second-best at +4.7 in six matches.

Kobel's shot stopping has almost always been plus relative to average, but this seems to be more of an outlier given how extreme the variance has gone in favor of Dortmund's defense. The rest of the defensive profile is alarming — they've allowed the sixth-most box touches per match and seventh-highest average xG per shot of the 32 teams that entered this competition. Kobel will need to be at his best to overcome Dortmund's defensive issues on Wednesday.

PSG

PSG and Dortmund had four common opponents in the Champions League group stage this year (plus two against each other), which is a small sample but a good way to compare the two clubs relative strength against one another. PSG had a +1.13 xG difference per match in those six contests, while Dortmund were -0.43. Dortmund created next to nothing in Paris in the first matchup as PSG won 2-0 (xG 2.4-0.7) and PSG's territorial dominance of that match was even greater than the final score and shot total stats would suggest.

The second meeting between the two clubs was a more end-to-end matchup with both teams finding success in transition against the other's porous midfield ball stopping. Dortmund totaled 1.4 xG on 10 shots and PSG managed 2.8 xG on 18 shots.

PSG's Ligue 1 numbers are always a bit difficult to extrapolate into European play, but the defensive fragility shows up in those numbers immediately. PSG have conceded 36.2 expected goals in France, which is just fifth-best in that division. The attack has dominated the league and they've clinched the Ligue 1 title already, but the defense hasn't held up well overall. It's the main reason to be skeptical of their chances of getting picked off as a favorite here.

Dortmund vs PSG

Prediction

The first leg of the Champions League knockout matches have generally been lower-event since the away goals rule was changed ahead of the 2021-22 season. Both of PSG's first legs against Real Sociedad and Barcelona were anything but cagey and low event though.

PSG have constant opportunities to play on the break and get the ball to its elite playmakers in space. The midfield lacks an ability to keep control of matches as currently constructed, and Enrique has sacrificed some control in favor of higher-event matches. Given the fragility of Dortmund's defense in transition, it's a prime opportunity for a fit Ousmane Dembélé and Mbappé to torch Dortmund's poor wide defense and put a ton of pressure on the center backs and Kobel.

I'd bet PSG to score multiple goals at -130 or better.

Pick: PSG Team Total Over 1.5 (-115)